Kategorie: Society

I have been on the lower end of the income ladder for many years. Not as low, as $1 a day, as some folks in a number of countries. But at my first full-time job, pay was what would now be about 350 Euro a month, for 210+ hours worked – and that is quite low even compared to the current federal minimum wage in the United States, at $7.25 per hour.

Later, I was able to save up some hundreds of Euro, and I wondered where I would put it, so that it at least wouldn’t depreciate due to inflation over the years, and be of some use in retirement, as pillow for expenses such as a new fridge. And evaluating the options, I didn’t put even a single Euro in crypto.

Technically, it sure is possible to make a profit from trading crypto. But in my view, the main problem is, that the value of this or that crypto, it depends way too much on money flowing in by these trades.

In contrast, a company with public stock, such may be paying yearly dividends worth 5% of the value of the stock, based on the revenue it had with its business. So, even if the company doesn’t have skyrocketing growth over the next 10 to 20 years, the stock ends up paying for itself, even if it isn’t traded daily in large volumes. Whereas with crypto, there is no such revenue, nor are there assets (such as a factory of a company).

So, an investment in crypto, it is pretty much just a bet on that others will keep purchasing crypto as well. A bet which did turn out plentiful for some, but in my view, it doesn’t mathematically add up for everyone.

In example, let’s say I make my own crypto, the DaLe-Coin. It’s the newest hottest craziest thing ever, and all that. And I am offering one coin for merely $1,000, with only 1,000 coins in existence.

And now, someone may be like: “I take two.” – and price/value on the market goes up. So far, cool. I can already pay rent, and the purchaser of the two coins, they may be already doing free marketing for me, as they are now invested in this crypto with $2,000.

Next round, even more people start buying DaLe-Coin. Price goes up even further. And I am like over the moon, already dreaming about making it onto the property ladder, like a small place of my own. And the first purchasers are also glad. But, a new purchaser may now look at a price of like $10,000 a coin.

This is in itself not necessarily a problem. As I sell some of the last coins I hold, the first purchaser may perhaps also start selling the two coins they hold, and so on, still making it possible for the $10,000 “value” to increase, when there are still people buying. And even someone coming in at $10,000 may perhaps look at $20,000 after some time. But to achieve that, it still needs that viral momentum, for people to want to get this DaLe-Coin.

And without this momentum, the guy who went in at $10,000, they need to create that momentum, basically like the free marketing again, if they don’t want to lose out on possibly thousands of dollars. And so on and so on. And to me, that doesn’t seem much of a fair trade, because I would be leaving that guy with all the risk about DaLe-Coin, whereas with a DaLe-company stock, it would still be of mutual interest for the stock to perform well, largely due to the business running well.

And that’s why I am rather skeptical about putting money into crypto. Which isn’t to say, that there won’t be further growth to the crypto market. In particular, if some popular video game starts using (own) crypto as a sort of game currency (perhaps as reaction to legislation, saying that paid for in-game currency must be able to be changed back to cash), then that would likely be a large number of players, who would start buying crypto, to purchase in-game horse armor with, and whatnot. But that all sounds too speculative for my taste, in regard to putting some money aside for rainy days.

You may have heard this phrase before: “The House Always Wins”, in the context of casinos and gambling.

What it refers to is, that at the end of the day, regardless of whether a casino, sports betting site, etc. – it is a business run for profit. And to turn that profit, it needs to have more money coming in, than is going out.

The bottom line of which is, that the odds are in favor of the casino, for example at a roulette-table. Even the red/black option isn’t a fifty/fifty chance, as there are the green zeros. That means that the probability of the draw to be red or black, sits at below 50% each. And the higher pay-out options, such as betting on a specific number, or in sports betting to bet on a specific result, they come with increased odds for the house, and decreased odds for the players. In example, Team A may really be pumped up, and Team B with no win the entire season so far. But to bet it all on a specific result of 3:0 (e.g. in soccer), means the house wins, when it is 2:0, or 4:0, or 3:1, etc.

Some guy may be like: “I knew it! The system is rigged, to quite frankly just screw the common man over. That’s why my mates and I play poker, and we are mature about the rules.”

And sure, in such a case, at least one of the players may walk away from the table, with more money than they came with, while the other players started out feeling like they at least had a fighting chance. But mathematically, when five players come to the table with $1,000 each, for one guy to walk away later with $5,000, that means the other four guys each have $1,000 less.

That said, as far as I am personally concerned, what Joe over there does with their money, that’s all up to Joe. And after all, if it is just like spending some spare change to pass the time between shows (such as in Las Vegas), that doesn’t seem that different to spending a few bucks to watch a movie, and other leisure activities.

It just seems sad, when it comes to situations, like the mentioned five guys at poker, where each of the guys is in it with $1,000, in the hopes to turn it into $2,000, to be able to afford rent this month. At such point, I am like: “Guys, isn’t this like a form of Squid Game, if you have seen the show? For one or at best two of you, to be able to pay their rent this month, three or four of the others won’t be able to pay their rent at all. It doesn’t make overall sense like this, does it?”

If at this point, the talk at the table would turn to politics… the talk would likely sound different based on which country or even municipality it is located at. In example, in Europe, the is more of an inclination, to understand some basic accommodation as a necessity of life – whereas in the United States, it seems to be more an attitude of: “Well, if you don’t like New York City, move west or whatever, claim some land, and build yourself a house from the resources on your land.”

This attitude may have been somewhat reasonable back in the old days, when there actually still was land to claim. But these days, stuff got “fenced off” for golf courses and whatnot, and in many regions, one has to go far to find something cheap-ish, and then it is like a spot in a trailer park – which isn’t necessarily the worst place imaginable to live at. In terms of accessibility to jobs, market, and services such as education, it usually isn’t a great place to live at though.

By which I do not mean to tarnish the American way of life. But just meaning to point out, back at the table with the five guys and talking about politics, that my stance is one of: “If poor people get evicted and end up on the street, just because some guy is all about bulldozing these flats, to build a massage parlor for second-home-residents of a nearby area with mansions – such is an example of a sad state of affairs.”

And as far as my country goes, I don’t want affairs to be that sad.